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In today’s episode, guest host Miles Bryan speaks with professor Finn Brunton in a conversation based on his recent Harper’s article, “The Chaos Machine: Prediction Markets and the Triumph of Crypto-Anarchy.” The two explore alternative visions for prediction markets: as tools for gathering collective knowledge, or as a way to undermine the institutions we rely on. They discuss whether putting money on the line brings us closer to the truth, how betting can create incentives to manipulate events, and what we risk when more of our shared reality becomes something to wager on.
Host: Miles Bryan, Vox Senior Producer and Reporter
Guest: Finn Brunton, Professor at the University of California, Davis
00:00 Intro
03:45 The potential of prediction markets vs the reality
08:57 Who uses prediction markets?
13:51 A utopic vision of prediction markets
17:56 The inspiration for Polymarket
21:57 A darker vision for prediction markets
39:34 How could prediction markets work in the future?
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